I am writing this blog now that I have left Turkey. While I was there, I did not dare put any of this online.
Erdoğan: Who he is and how long he has been in power
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was Prime Minister from 2003 to 2014, then became President in 2014 — more than two decades in power in total
- He was re-elected as President in both 2018 and 2023, the maximum number of terms allowed under Turkey’s constitution
- His current mandate runs until 2028, when he would be constitutionally ineligible to run again
- His party is the AKP — Justice and Development Party — founded in 2001, conservative and drawing significant support from non-secular Turks
Is it a democracy?
- Under constitutional reforms approved by referendum in 2017, Turkey transitioned from a parliamentary democracy to a presidential model. The role of prime minister was abolished. The Council of Europe warned that the new system lacked the checks and balances needed to prevent authoritarian rule
- Freedom House’s 2026 report awarded Turkey the worst due process score globally and classified Turkey as “Not Free.” Analysts have downgraded it from a flawed democracy to a competitive authoritarian regime
- Elections still take place and remain relatively competitive, but the playing field is not level
Achievements
- In early years, Erdoğan focused on economic reforms and infrastructure that made Turkey prosperous
- GDP per capita tripled between 2002 and 2013
- Massive infrastructure expansion: motorways, 5G network, high-speed rail, hospitals, airports — including one of the largest airports in the world in Istanbul
- Universal healthcare extended to rural areas; infant mortality reduced significantly
- Number of universities expanded dramatically — from around 75 in 2002 to over 200 today, including in smaller cities that previously had none
- Turkish defence industry built up substantially — drones, warships and armoured vehicles now produced domestically; the Bayraktar TB2 drone was used in Ukraine, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh
- Turkey’s profile as a regional power rose considerably
- Diplomatic independence maintained — mediating between Russia and Ukraine while remaining in NATO
Criticism
- Erdoğan has consolidated power through constitutional changes and the imprisonment of political opponents, independent journalists and members of civil society
- Following the 2016 coup attempt, tens of thousands of civil servants, soldiers and academics were dismissed or arrested, alarming international observers and human rights groups
- Turkey blocked more than 311,000 web addresses in 2024 — the highest number since 2007. Some 82 percent of blocks were imposed without a court order
- Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was arrested in March 2025, shortly before being formally chosen as the opposition’s presidential candidate. He faces more than 140 charges
- Inflation exceeded 80 percent in 2022; the lira has lost over 80 percent of its value in a decade
- Economy became structurally dependent on foreign capital inflows — vulnerable to sudden reversals
- The AKP transformed traditional patronage into a machine politics system — pro-AKP businesses depend on the government for procurement and regulatory favours; the AKP relies on these businesses for financial support and media backing
- Erdoğan’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak served as Finance Minister until 2020; family members and loyalists placed in key positions throughout government and business
- Kurdish conflict unresolved — peace talks collapsed; military operations across southeast Turkey, Syria and Iraq continued
- University rectors are appointed directly by the president; academics self-censor on sensitive topics
- EU accession negotiations were frozen in 2018 due to concerns about democratic standards, fundamental rights and judicial independence
Sources: Freedom House (2026), House of Commons Library, The Conversation, Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI 2026), EBSCO Research Starters, Britannica, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Turkey under Erdoğan is a country of genuine contradictions. The same leader who built hospitals, universities and airports also imprisoned mayors, journalists and judges. His supporters see a stronger, more confident Turkey. His critics see a democracy that has been systematically hollowed out. Both sides are large. Both are certain. And that polarisation — between those who believe in him and those who fear him — now defines Turkish society as much as anything he has built or broken.